From the desk of
Bill Ramey
5 1 18
COMMENTARY & OPINION
Israel is stomping on Iran for its alleged secret
nuclear program — and it could bring one of the worst wars the Middle East has
ever seen
Apr. 30, 2018, 2:39 PM
150,069
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
REUTERS/Amir Cohen
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday said Israeli intelligence had obtained a trove of "secret" documents outlining a clandestine Iranian nuclear program, and he accused Tehran of cheating on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
- Experts say a strike in Syria on Sunday that is believed to have killed Iranians was most likely carried out by Israel in a marked escalation of military conflict.
- Israel appears to have been punishing Iran and walking all over Syria as the US expresses support for Jerusalem.
- The result, experts say, could be a massive war breaking out across a region already ravaged by conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu on Monday said Israeli intelligence
had obtained a trove of "secret" documents outlining a clandestine
nuclear program in Iran.
On Sunday, Syria got rocked by a missile attack
that appeared to ignite a munitions depot hard enough to register as a 2.6
magnitude earthquake and is believed to have killed dozens of Iranians. Experts
say the strike was most likely carried out by Israel.
Though Tehran has denied that
Iranians died in the strike, a more aggressive posture toward Iran by Israel
could bring about a major clash that experts say might lead to the biggest war the Middle East has
ever seen.
The perpetrator of Sunday's attack
hasn't been confirmed. Israel rarely takes credit for strikes within Syria,
though it maintains that it will strike at any Iranian activity there
that it deems a threat.
With an estimated 20,000 to 70,000
Shiite Iranian-aligned fighters and tens of thousands of rockets in Syria,
that's a lot of activity for Israel to monitor.
Israel's air force
appears to be repeatedly battering Iran and Syria
Israeli
F-15s.
Jonathan Schanzer, an expert on Iran
and Syria at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says Israel is picking
up the pace of strikes and moves against Iran — and staring down the barrel of
a massive confrontation.
"For some time, it really did
look like the Israelis were holding back," Schanzer told Business Insider.
"They seemed reticent to engage. They didn't want to expose themselves in
the skies over Syria."
But after an air battle in February
among Israeli, Syrian, and Iranian forces — in which Israel said it downed an
Iranian drone and much of Syria's air defenses but lost an F-16 fighter jet—
Israel appears to be going much harder.
Israeli forces "appear to have
broken a seal of sorts," Schanzer said, adding that Israel may see a
"window" as Syria's air defenses are vulnerable.
Both Iranian and Israeli sources
cited in recent news reports have predicted retaliation to the strike on
Sunday.
But before any such answer could be
made, Israel dropped what it characterized as a massive cache of dirt on Iran.
'A
psychological operation'
Another video of
the huge explosion at 46 Brigade arms depot in #Hama, rumours of Israeli Strikes, could be
sabotage as well.
Danny Makki (@Dannymakkisyria)
Netanyahu said at a press conference
on Monday that Israeli intelligence had about 100,000 documents, videos, and
photographs showing that Iran had lied about its nuclear ambitions, and he
accused it of cheating on the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Schanzer said: "Spies steal
documents all the time, but this was a huge cache. And usually, spy agencies
keep it quiet after the intelligence is lifted. Not so with the Israelis — they
are broadcasting this, making it as much a psychological operation as a
revelation about Iran's nuclear mendacity."
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has
signaled the US is revisiting the Iran nuclear deal.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said
on Sunday that Trump would withdraw from the 2015 deal "if we can't fix
it" and assured Netanyahu that the US was "deeply concerned about
Iran's dangerous escalation of threats to Israel and the region and Iran's
ambition to dominate the Middle East."
"The United States is with
Israel in this fight, and we strongly support Israel's sovereign right to
defend itself," Pompeo added.
Iran's ability to retaliate against
Israel is limited.
Diplomatically, Iran doesn't have
much leverage. Though Iran is allied with Russia, Russian air defenses in Syria
seem uninterested in protecting Iranian targets from suspected Israeli strikes.
Iran's main leverage over Israel is
its influence with Hamas, a Palestinian group active in the already boiling
Gaza Strip on Israel's border, and its nearby fighters and rocket stockpiles.
"There are things that Iran can
do very quickly to make things miserable for the Israelis," Schanzer said.
With Israel on the sidelines of the
civil war in Syria, where over 70 countries have bombed or contributed to
bombing efforts, the feud heating up between Jerusalem and Tehran could erupt
into a fight that could rock the Middle East.
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